Significant tornado risk forecast once again
Multiple rounds of severe weather will target the Plains on Monday, bringing the threat of damaging wind gusts stronger than 80 mph, hail bigger than softballs and strong or intense – greater than EF3 –tornadoes.
“Everyone needs to stay weather aware today/tonight and have a plan in place in case you need to shelter,” the National Weather Service in Norman, Oklahoma, urged.
A level 4-of-5 risk of severe thunderstorms is centered on more than 5 million people in the eastern half of Oklahoma – including Oklahoma City – and portions of surrounding states on Monday, according to the SPC. A larger level 3-of-5 risk includes more than 12 million people elsewhere in the Plains and Mississippi Valley.
The most dangerous activity in Kansas and Oklahoma is expected to begin later Monday afternoon and push east into the Mississippi Valley overnight, but a few damaging storms could rumble to life earlier in the afternoon – especially in northern Texas, including the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex.
The greatest risk of tornadoes will start when storms first fire up in the late afternoon and continue through the evening, with the SPC warning of long-lived supercells – rotating thunderstorms capable of producing violent impacts – that could travel large distances. Oklahoma is at the greatest threat for these storms, but they’re also possible in surrounding states.
A dangerous flash flooding threat will also build just east of where the strongest thunderstorms are set to strike.
A level 3-of-4 risk of flooding rainfall is in place for parts of northern Arkansas and southern Missouri, according to the Weather Prediction Center. These areas have been soaked in recent weeks, so any additional heavy rain could produce “numerous flash floods.”
The severe weather threat will shift east on Tuesday, targeting parts of the Mississippi, Ohio and Tennessee valleys — including areas that have already been hit hard by this spring’s storms, like western Kentucky and western Tennessee.